The copper price on the London Metal Exchange recently hit a new high of $11540 per ton, and the market is bullish, but different voices have also emerged. Albert Mackenzie, a copper analyst at Benchmark, said that after copper prices break through historical highs, they usually fall back, so they should take a breath. However, this market trend has been rising for several months in a row, like stepping on the accelerator and not letting go. At the same time, trader Mercuria mentioned at a meeting in Shanghai that there is currently an "extreme misalignment" in the market, with a large amount of metal being shipped to the United States to avoid potential tariffs, which could make supply from China and other regions tight. He even warned that in the future, there may be a situation where non US markets cannot even buy electrolytic copper.
On the other hand, Goldman Sachs' view is not so tense. They acknowledge that the outflow of supply has indeed pushed up prices and raised their price forecast for the first half of next year, but do not believe that there will be a real shortage in the short term. Goldman Sachs predicts that copper prices are likely to fluctuate between $10000 and $11000 by 2025, rather than going up all the way. The reason they gave is very direct - there will still be a surplus of 160000 tons in 2026, and the supply and demand seem to be gradually leveling off rather than tense out of control. Even from a longer-term perspective, Goldman Sachs predicts that the global copper market will not enter a shortage until at least 2029. There is also pressure on the demand side, especially in China. Goldman Sachs believes that copper consumption in China may decline by nearly 8% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, which is not a plus point for sustained price strength.
As shown in the above chart, copper prices fluctuate back and forth between $5.24-5.45 per pound, remaining at a high level overall. However, after the surge, the amplitude has significantly increased. Recently, several candlesticks have had a mixed upper and lower shadow, as if the long and short sides are pulling again. A rhythm can be seen on the market: the price stabilized around 5.26-5.28 in early December, then quickly rose to around 5.44, but after breaking through, there was a rebound, and now it is hovering near the 5.37 line. The trend is strong, but hesitation is also evident. Goldman Sachs' statement that 'it is difficult to stay at a high level in the long run' is not unfounded.
To summarize the current situation in one sentence, it can be said that copper prices are very hot, but the heat comes more from expectations and funds rather than iron clad reality. The market is moving forward with its head held high, but whether the foundation under its feet is solid enough remains to be verified by time.
Global copper market tension intensifies: bullish sentiment drives London and US copper prices higher
The industry conference held in Shanghai this week focused on the increasingly tight global copper market, during which mines, smelters, and traders unanimously agreed that the tightening supply is accelerating. In this context, copper prices continue to rise.
Kostas Bintas, head of the metals department at commodity giant Mercuria, reiterated his strong bullish view. He warned that a large amount of metal being shipped to the United States could lead to rapid depletion of inventories in other parts of the world: "This is the big one... we will be left without copper cathodes in the rest of the world
Natalie Scott Gray, Senior Metals Analyst at StoneX Financial, stated that the bullish sentiment, combined with factors such as "tariff impact, improved macro outlook, and supply disruptions," formed a "perfect storm style" bullish narrative at the end of the year.
In terms of price performance:
London LME three-month copper futures: rose 2.5% at one point, hitting a historical high of $11210.50/ton, then fell below $11000/ton
COMEX copper futures in the United States: up 2% to $5.3095 per pound
Earlier this year, COMEX copper prices soared to a historical record of $5.9585/pound due to bets that the United States would soon impose taxes on copper
As the risk of further global inventory decline accumulates, the copper market is experiencing a strong driving force of a new round of bullish trends. Future price changes will still be influenced by key factors such as US tariff policies and the pace of supply recovery.
Anglo Asian completes the first batch of Demirli copper concentrate sales, with Tok prepaying $25 million to support cooperation
Anglo Asian Mining (LON: AAZ) has officially launched the sale of copper concentrate from Demirli mine in Azerbaijan and completed its first delivery to global commodity trader Trafigura. This cooperation is based on the agreement signed by both parties on November 3rd, in which Tok agreed to provide a $25 million advance payment to support mine operations and long-term cooperation.
The first batch of sales occurred in late November, with a scale of 2055 wet tons of copper concentrate (including 351 tons of copper metal), expected to bring in $3.6 million in revenue (excluding the Azerbaijani government's share). To ensure smooth transportation, Anglo Asian has set up a dedicated logistics center near Ganja, allowing Tok to ship concentrate without entering the restricted access Karabakh.
CEO Reza Vaziri stated that the Demirli mine has been put into operation as planned and the budget is well controlled. This sale marks a further deepening of cooperation with Tok. The company predicts that Demirli's annual production will increase from 4000 tons this year to 15000 tons starting from 2026, and the sales volume will continue to grow.
Codelco partners with Glencore to advance Chile's large-scale copper smelter project - with an annual processing capacity of up to 1.5 million tons
Chilean state-owned copper company Codelco has signed a memorandum of understanding with Swiss mining and trading company Glencore to jointly promote the construction of a new Chilean copper smelting project. Codelco will supply up to 800000 tons of copper concentrate to Glencore annually, while Glencore will be responsible for designing, financing, constructing, operating, and maintaining the smelter. The plan is to have an annual processing capacity of 1.5 million tons of dry based concentrate after completion, and comply with strict environmental standards.
Both parties expect to sign the final agreement in the first half of 2025. If approved, construction will begin in 2030 and production will begin in 2032-2033. This project will increase Chile's smelting capacity by about 30% and increase its global market share from 6% to about 7%, but its impact on the global smelting landscape still dominated by China is limited. Industry experts point out that site selection, environmental impact assessment approval, and political risks will be key challenges in the early stage. At the same time, the global surplus of smelting and processing fees (TC/RC) turning negative means that the project must have world-class efficiency and cost competitiveness in the future in order to establish itself in the market.
Glencore will restart production at the Alonbrella copper mine in Argentina, benefiting from tax incentives and rising metal prices
Glencore announced that it will restart the Alonbrella copper mine located in Catamarca Province, Argentina by the end of next year, and expects to officially resume production in the first half of 2028. This mine was the last mine in Argentina to retain copper production before it ceased production in 2018. The company stated that the decision to restart is mainly based on Argentina's current more attractive tax environment for investment, as well as the positive prospects brought by the continued strengthening of copper and gold prices. In addition, the Large Investment Incentive Program (RIGI) launched by Argentine President Millais also provides policy support for mining operations, which is beneficial for project advancement.
The United States accelerates its participation in key mining companies to counter China's supply dominance
The US government is planning to further expand its equity holdings in key mineral companies. Jarrod Agen, Executive Director of the White House National Energy Leadership Council, stated that the United States will accelerate the construction of key mineral supply chains through direct shareholding, and said that this move "will become the norm" to address China's global advantage in related materials.
In the past year, the Trump administration has invested over $1 billion in equity stakes in mining and strategic metal companies, with typical transactions including:
$400 million acquisition of 15% equity in MP Materials Corp. (announced in July 2024)
$670 million investment in Vulcan Elements Inc., a magnetic material manufacturer
$35.6 million acquisition of 10% equity in Trilogy Metals Inc
Invest in Lithium Americas Corp. and participate in the restructuring of its $2.23 billion Energy Department loan. The company is developing the largest lithium mining project in the United States
Agen stated that the government is "directly buying equity" to ensure supply security and counter China's leading position in key materials such as rare earths, gallium, and cobalt. The previous export restrictions between China and the United States caused a brief disturbance to rare earth supply, which also prompted the United States to accelerate the layout of domestic resources.
Government officials have not disclosed the next company they plan to invest in, but have made it clear that more mining companies have taken the initiative to negotiate. The United States will continue to strengthen its control through capital intervention to ensure rapid catch-up with China in key mineral supply chains.
US mining companies call on Washington to develop a comprehensive mineral strategy to counter China's advantages
Three executives from American mining and smelting companies stated at the Reuters NEXT conference in New York that although Washington has increased its support for key minerals, including investing in mining companies and setting a bottom line for rare earth prices, it is still not enough to compete with China's advantages in the global supply chain. They called on the government to accelerate loan approval, develop comprehensive industrial plans, and adopt more targeted international policies.
The US mining industry believes that the government's actions are still slow and that stronger policy efforts are needed to catch up with China's supply chain advantages.
American Rare Earths states that the United States must develop a comprehensive supply chain strategy for key minerals, covering antimony, nickel, copper, and rare earths, from mines to batteries, magnets, and end-users.
The CEO of Westwin Elements is calling on the United States to pressure Indonesia to limit its nickel production - Indonesia's production has reached about 60% of the world's total, causing nickel prices to plummet by nearly 50%. Westwin plans to refine 34000 tons of nickel annually in Oklahoma by 2030, but financing is currently blocked.
It believes that instead of setting a bottom line for nickel prices, it is more effective to stabilize the market by restricting Indonesian supply.
Sanderson, director of American Rare Earths, emphasized that the rare earth market is small in scale and low in transparency, and a price floor mechanism is still necessary; LME currently does not trade rare earths, and its dominant position in the Chinese market is difficult to shake.
Perpetua Resources is building an antimony gold mine in Idaho with support from JPMorgan's $1.5 trillion safety fund, but believes that government policies are fragmented and lacking in strategy.
Both Perpetua and Westwin have applied for EXIM financing, with the former seeking up to $1.8 billion; Enterprises generally believe that slow loan approval speed hinders project implementation.
The Supreme Court of Canada has ruled that Lundin Mining may face a class action lawsuit from investors due to delayed disclosure of a major landslide event
The Supreme Court of Canada supports investors in filing a class action lawsuit against Lundin Mining, headquartered in Vancouver, on the grounds that the company failed to timely disclose the 700000 metric tons of mining waste landslide that occurred at its Candelaria copper mine in Chile. The incident occurred on October 31, 2017, but Lundin did not publicly announce and lower its 2018 production forecast by 20% until November 29, resulting in a 16% drop in stock price and a market value evaporation of over CAD 1 billion the next day. The court overturned the previous narrow interpretation of "material information" and emphasized that once a listed company experiences an important internal event for investors, it must disclose it immediately. Experts believe that this move is beneficial for investor protection and capital market transparency.
Ivanhoe Mines ignites Africa's largest and greenest copper smelter, producing 99.7% crude copper by the end of the year
Ivanhoe Mines (TSX: IVN) officially launched its 500000 ton copper smelter located in Kamoa Kakula on November 21, calling it the largest and greenest copper smelting project in Africa. The opening ceremony was attended by company founder Robert Friedland and local tribal leaders. The stock price of Ivanhoe remained at approximately CAD 14.70 on the day, with a market value of approximately CAD 20.8 billion (USD 14.9 billion).
The smelter is expected to achieve the first batch of concentrate entering the furnace by the end of this year and begin producing crude copper anodes with a purity of 99.7%. In the future, priority will be given to processing the concentrate from the first to third phases of the project, and the excess will be sent to the Lualaba smelter in Kolwezi. Before production, the on-site inventory is about 37000 tons, and it is expected to decrease to around 17000 tons by 2026 as the smelting plant climbs.
The smelting plant adopts the Meizuo Outotec direct melting flash smelting technology and is fully powered by renewable energy from the Inga II hydropower station. After full production, it will become the largest and lowest carbon footprint copper smelting facility in Africa.
Aurubis calls for restrictions on the export of recycled metals, and the EU's key raw material bill is expected to benefit the copper industry in the long run
Aurubis, the largest copper producer in Europe, stated that the EU Critical Raw Materials Act will have a long-term positive impact on the industry, but ensuring that recycled metal materials remain in the EU still faces difficult negotiations. The bill came into effect last year, and the EU aims to achieve a raw material source structure by 2030: mining 10%, recycling 25%, and processing 40%.
Aurabis CEO Toralf Haag pointed out that in order to meet strong demand, the company is pushing for export restrictions and tariffs at the EU level to avoid the outflow of recycled materials. The discussion is very difficult, but we will not stop working hard. "He also said that the impact of the bill is still not obvious, but it is expected to strengthen the protection of the European recycling market and stimulate copper and rare metal exploration in the medium and long term. In terms of performance, Aurubis' fiscal year profit was slightly lower than market forecasts
Pre tax operating profit decreased by 14% to 355 million euros (approximately 414 million US dollars)
Market estimate is 359 million euros
Strong demand for precious metals, sulfuric acid, and copper products contributes to revenue
But offset by a slight decrease in revenue from the recycling business and an increase in production costs and depreciation for projects such as expansion in Bulgaria
Aurubis believes that with the advancement of policies and gradual market adjustments, the European metal recycling system is expected to gain stronger internal digestion capacity, providing support for future copper resource supply and energy transformation.
Rio Tinto Nuton technology produces copper cathodes for the first time at Gunnison mine in Arizona - completing the traditional 18 year progress in 18 months
Nuton and Gunnison Copper (TSX: GCU) have successfully produced the first batch of copper cathodes using Nuton bioleaching technology at Johnson Camp Mine (JCM) in Arizona, which is a key achievement of a four-year demonstration project. The experiment is expected to produce approximately 30000 tons of refined copper through heap leaching process, with JCM located about 105 kilometers from Tucson.
Nuton technology uses microorganisms to accelerate the leaching of sulfide minerals, which can directly produce 99.99% copper cathodes without the need for grinding, tailings storage, smelting, and refining. Official data shows that this technology has a recovery rate of up to 85%, which can save up to 80% of water and reduce carbon emissions by up to 60% compared to traditional processes. It also has the potential to extend the lifespan of mines and shorten the supply chain.
This copper production was completed in just 18 months, which is a significant reduction in progress compared to the traditional mining project cycle of about 18 years. Nuton has been collaborating with Excelsior Mining since 2023, accumulating over 30 years of research and development experience. JCM produced its first batch of copper cathodes three months ago, making it the latest copper mine in the United States.
Gunnison's stock price rose 2.7% to CAD 0.38 on Thursday, with a market value of CAD 146.4 million (approximately USD 105 million). Nuton has invested $100 million in technology deployment and construction for the project, and plans to recoup the investment through copper production in the next 4-5 years. In the second phase, a joint venture will be established with Gunnison holding a 51% stake and Nuton holding a 49% stake.
JCM is an open-pit and heap leaching mine with an annual production capacity of 25 million pounds of copper and a mine lifespan of 15-20 years. The resource quantity includes 108 million tons of M&I resources (0.31% Cu) and 51 million tons of inferred resources (0.32% Cu). Under the baseline scenario, the project has an after tax internal rate of return of 30%, a payback period of approximately 4 years, a net present value of $180 million (7.5% discount rate), and an initial capital expenditure of $58.9 million.
Nuton copper has officially entered the US supply chain, and the next step will be to conduct years of technical validation, third-party evaluation, and environmental performance review to promote comprehensive commercialization.
SolGold once again rejects Jiangxi Copper's acquisition offer, as competition for copper mine assets continues to intensify
Ecuador's focused mining company SolGold (LON: SOLG) has once again rejected a preliminary and conditional acquisition proposal from Jiangxi Copper, offering 26 pence per share. This is the second offer received by the company in less than a week. Affected by the news, SolGold's stock price closed up 14% in London on Friday, at 29.55 pence.
Jiangxi Copper currently holds 12% equity in SolGold, making it its largest shareholder. The board of directors of SolGold had unanimously rejected another non binding offer from Jiangxi Copper on November 23. The company emphasized in its statement that it still has confidence in the independent development prospects of the enterprise and advised shareholders not to take any action for the time being.
SolGold has long been seen as a potential acquisition target for global mining giants, with BHP holding 10.4% and Newmont holding 10.3%. However, the financing dispute and project scope adjustment surrounding the Cascabel copper gold project in northern Ecuador have cooled down the interest of these potential buyers.
According to the UK Takeover Code, Jiangxi Copper must decide whether to make a formal tender offer before 17:00 (GMT) on December 26th. The market believes that under the expectation of global electrification driving copper demand growth and tightening commodity supply, copper mining assets are becoming increasingly sought after. Recently, there have been a series of major mergers and acquisitions in the industry, including BHP's unsuccessful attempt to acquire Anglo American (LON: AAL) last week.
Osisko Metals secures CAD 32.5 million financing to accelerate progress on Gasp é copper project
Osisko Metals (TSX: OM) announced a CAD 32.5 million (approximately USD 23.2 million) investment to accelerate the development of the Gasp é copper project in Quebec. This financing will be conducted through private placement, and the company plans to issue approximately 67.66 million ordinary shares at a price of CAD 0.48 per share.
The lineup of participating investors is strong, with Hudbay Minerals subscribing to over 29 million shares and holding approximately 4.3% of the company's shares after the transaction is completed, becoming a strategic investor in Osisko Metals for the first time. Agnico Eagle Mines and Franco Nevada respectively subscribed for 26 million shares and approximately 4.16 million shares, with the remaining approximately 8.33 million shares subscribed by undisclosed institutional investors.
After the announcement, Osisko Metals' stock price rose strongly by over 12%, reaching a 52 week high near CAD 0.55, and the company's total market value increased to approximately CAD 330.7 million (approximately USD 237.1 million).
The funds will mainly be used to promote the development of the Gasp é copper mine, including drilling work, permit applications, and technical research. The project was once Noranda's historic mine, which Osisko acquired from Glencore in 2023 and plans to restart production in the early 2030s. If the construction progresses smoothly, the mine is expected to achieve an annual output of about 500000 tons of copper concentrate around 2032.
At present, the project has a huge resource scale and development potential. The defined indicative resource quantity is 824 million tons, with a copper content of 0.27% (equivalent to 2.23 million tons of copper), and an additional 670 million tons of inferred resources, with a copper grade of 0.30% (equivalent to 1.99 million tons of copper). The company is advancing the upgrade of its resource model and plans to complete the PEA economic research evaluation next year, laying the foundation for subsequent construction.
Saudi Arabia launches new round of mineral exploration bidding: covering 13000 square kilometers, mining investment accelerates further
The Saudi Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources announced on Monday that it has officially launched a round of public bidding for three mineral exploration licenses, with a total exploration area of approximately 13000 square kilometers. This move is an important step for Saudi Arabia to accelerate its mining development strategy, aiming to tap into its vast mineral resource potential estimated to be worth up to 9.4 trillion riyals (approximately 2.50 trillion US dollars).
According to official statements, the bidding area is located in the new mineralization belt of Madinah, Makkah, Riyadh, Qassim, and Hail, with exploration prospects for polymetallic resources such as gold, silver, copper, zinc, and lead.
In recent years, Saudi Arabia has been vigorously promoting the 2030 Vision and developing non oil industries, with mining being seen as a key sector supporting economic diversification. Official data shows that the global demand for energy transition metals continues to rise, leading to a continuous increase in the strategic value of metals such as gold and copper.
Analysts generally believe that this large-scale exploration bidding is expected to attract international mining giants to enter the Saudi Arabian market, help the country build a world-class mining investment environment, and lay the foundation for the future mineral development and processing industry chain.
Upgrading US Congo Relations: Realistic Trade of Key Minerals for Peace
The United States is advancing a significant diplomatic and resource cooperation - signing a mineral and infrastructure partnership agreement with the Democratic Republic of Congo, while also facilitating peace between Congo and Rwanda. This is not simply economic cooperation, but a transaction that binds peace, resources, investment, and geopolitics together. Trump will personally meet with the presidents of the two countries to witness the signing of the peace agreement, which could lead to a substantial turning point in the 30-year conflict.
The goal of the United States is clear: to ensure long-term supply of key minerals such as cobalt, copper, tantalum, lithium, and gold through cooperation with Congo, and to weaken China's dominant position in global mineral trade. Congo has huge reserves of resources, and if cooperation proceeds smoothly, it will be positioned as an energy and supply chain hub in Africa, benefiting local mining employment and US funded projects. The agreement also includes two notable infrastructure projects: a $1.8 billion railway extension to the port of Lobito in Angola, and the Grand Inga Dam, which may become the world's largest hydroelectric power station in the future.
But this agreement is not unconditional. The Congolese side has made it clear that US investment will only become a reality after Rwanda stops supporting the M23 rebels. Rwanda insists that it is only taking defensive measures and demands that Congo completely eliminate the FDLR organization related to the massacre. Both sides will not back down, and although peace is written on paper, it still needs to be tested by the flames of war.
The significance of this agreement lies in its reflection of the logic of real-world diplomacy: peace is not a free ideal, but a result that can be built through infrastructure, mineral resources, and international financing. Congo hopes to open up the path of investment and industrialization through this, the United States needs to stabilize its supply chain, and Rwanda is trying to ensure its own secure borders. Mineral resources have become chips, and cooperation and conflict are intertwined. Whether an agreement can truly be implemented depends on the changes in the Eastern Theater and political attitudes in the future.
