Over the past week, there has been a very clear and 'structured' signal in the base metal market: not all metals are rising, but 'metals that rise logically' are rising. Copper and tin continue to lead the way; Although nickel has rebounded, it is clearly still catching up with the team.
1、 Copper prices approach historic highs, AI demand is being repriced
Against the backdrop of tight supply in multiple metal markets, the resurgence of US technology stocks has significantly boosted market risk appetite and directly pushed up copper prices. As one of the most important industrial metals in the world, copper prices rose by 1.3% at one point, reaching $11928 per ton, only $25 short of the historical high, and approaching the critical psychological threshold of $12000 per ton. From the perspective of annual performance, copper prices have risen by more than one-third this year. The core factors driving this round of rise include:
·Mining shutdown and supply disruption
·The significant increase in US copper imports and the continued positive outlook for copper demand related to artificial intelligence (AI) continue to be seen
·Copper is being seen by the market as an irreplaceable 'hard currency' in AI infrastructure construction.
2、 Tin's performance is more aggressive: the increase this year is close to 50%
If copper is steadily approaching historical highs, then tin is one of the most resilient metals in this round of market trends. Tin, as a crucial metal in the technology industry, has risen nearly 50% in price this year and reached a three-year high on Friday. This round of rise is highly synchronized with the resurgence of AI concept stocks. Logically speaking, the rise of tin is not complicated:
·Widely used in semiconductor solder and electronic manufacturing
·The intensification of AI hardware means that the intensity of tin usage in unit devices is higher
·The supply side itself is relatively fragile, with greater price elasticity
3、 Chart 1: Technology stocks rise, directly igniting copper and tin
The first image clearly shows a trend:
LME copper price
LME tin price
NASDAQ Index
Since the second half of 2025, the three have shown a highly consistent upward trend. This is not accidental. The market is trading a very clear logical chain: tech stocks rising → AI investment expansion → increased demand for electricity, computing power, and hardware → copper and tin demand being re priced. It is worth noting that in this chain, the increase in tin is significantly faster than that of copper, reflecting its high elasticity in the AI hardware manufacturing process.
4、 Aluminum prices rise, but the logic is different
Aluminum prices have also shown strong performance, rising to the highest level since 2022. The driving factors mainly come from the supply side:
·An aluminum smelter in Mozambique is about to shut down
·Chinese aluminum plants face production cap constraints
The rise of aluminum is more due to cost and production logic under supply constraints, rather than the main demand for AI.
5、 Nickel: rebound appears, but still significantly lagging behind throughout the year
Nickel stands in stark contrast to copper and tin. After hitting an eight month low, nickel prices have risen for the third consecutive trading day. On Friday, LME nickel prices rose by 1.6% at one point and ultimately closed up 1.1% at $14803 per ton. The core of this rebound comes from policy expectations. Indonesia is becoming a key variable in the nickel market. As the world's largest nickel producer, Indonesia proposes:
·2026 Nickel Mine Production Plan Reduction
·Expected production of approximately 250 million tons
·Significantly lower than the target production of 379 million tons by 2025
This is a direct response to the long-term decline in nickel prices. In the past three years, due to the rapid expansion of nickel production in Indonesia and China, significantly exceeding global demand growth, nickel prices have cumulatively fallen by about 50% on the LME.
6、 Another variable of nickel: pricing mechanism may be adjusted
In addition to reducing production, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources also plans to revise the benchmark pricing formula for nickel ore in early 2026. According to Bloomberg Technoz citing Meidy Katrin Lengkey, Secretary General of the Indonesian Nickel Mining Association:
·Cobalt and other by-products may be classified as separate commodities
·And it will be included in the scope of royalty collection
This means that there may be systematic changes in the cost structure and profit distribution of the nickel industry chain in the future.
7、 Chart 2: By 2025, nickel will significantly fall behind
The second image provides a very intuitive comparison result. In the full year performance of 2025:
·Tin: Increase close to+50%
·Copper: up about+30%
·Aluminum: Moderate increase
·Nickel: Still hovering below the zero axis throughout the year
This is not a short-term fluctuation, but a structural differentiation:
·Copper and tin are priced by the market as "AI and technology infrastructure metals"
·Nickel still remains in the framework of 'overcapacity industrial metals'
8、 Institutional viewpoint: Opportunities for nickel may arise after 2026
Natixis analyst Bernard Dahdah pointed out that if the 2026 production reduction plan is truly implemented, nickel is expected to outperform other base metals. At present, most varieties in the basic metal sector have reached historic highs, so the upward momentum of prices may slow down, and some metals may even experience a pullback. The underlying message of this sentence is that the nickel market requires a 'real tightening of supply' as a prerequisite.
9、 Latest Closing Price Summary (LME)
As of 17:51 local time on December 19th:
·Nickel:+1.1%, $14803/ton
·Copper:+0.9%, $11881.50/ton
·Aluminum:+1.0%, $2945/ton
10、 Epilogue
Both are basic metals, and this round of market trends has given a clear answer: with AI logic, prices are reaching new highs; Those who rely on expanding production to tell stories are still waiting for a turning point. (Original source: Bloomberg)
