According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of copper waste and scrap in China reached 190100 physical tons in July 2025, an increase of 3.73% month on month and a slight decrease of 2.36% year-on-year. From the cumulative data from January to July, the import volume was 1.3355 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.77% (customs code 74040000). Against the backdrop of traditional seasonal off-season and continuous inverted import prices, the import volume in July increased instead of decreasing month on month, once again demonstrating unexpected resilience.
SMM believes that the main reasons for the high import volume in July are as follows:
1. Strong support from rigid demand of domestic smelters: The tight supply pattern of domestic copper concentrate has not changed, and spot TC continues to hover at a low level. Smelters rely heavily on recycled copper raw materials, a key supplementary raw material, to maintain production. Rigid demand provides bottom support for import volume.
2. The diversification adjustment of import sources continues to deepen: the import volume from major alternative source countries such as Japan and Thailand remains high and continues to grow, effectively offsetting the impact of almost zero US supply. The "de Americanization" restructuring of the global recycled copper supply chain is still underway, forming a new pattern of relatively stable total volume but significantly adjusted flow direction.
3. Early orders were concentrated at the port: There was a brief improvement in the import price ratio in the early stage, which stimulated the generation of some forward orders. This part of the goods were concentrated at the port for customs clearance in July, reflected in the import data for that month, supporting the month on month growth.
Specifically, in July 2025, Japan's exports to China will continue to maintain a strong momentum, ranking among the top import source countries. The export volume of copper waste and scrap to China for the month was 36100 tons, a month on month increase of 42.4% and a significant year-on-year increase of 74.69%. It accounted for 19.02% of China's total imports, surpassing Thailand and jumping to the top spot. Thailand has become the second largest importer of recycled copper raw materials in China, with an import volume of 34400 physical tons in July, accounting for 18.09%, a month on month increase of 31.11%, and a significant year-on-year increase of 157.72%. In addition, countries such as South Korea, Spain, and Malaysia are also among the top import source countries, reflecting the new normal of increasingly diversified supply sources for recycled copper raw materials in China. At the same time, the US supply has further withdrawn from the Chinese market, and the proportion of imports in July has dropped to an extremely low level of 0.31%, leaving a market gap that continues to be filled by other regions.
However, the actual tight supply situation in the market has not eased due to stable import data. According to SMM, the current market for recycled copper raw materials still faces severe challenges: the US supply is almost extinct, and due to the impact of US tariff policies, there are few quotes from US sources in the market; The domestic spot market has a tight supply of goods, and holders generally choose to sell at a higher price under the support of costs. At the same time, due to the latest policy adjustments in the domestic recycled copper industry, production-oriented enterprises (such as recycled rod companies) are expected to lower the prices of recycled copper raw materials, which is expected to cause temporary shortages in domestic supply.
Looking ahead to the future, SMM believes that the import volume of domestic recycled copper raw materials will continue to fluctuate at a high level and undergo structural optimization in the coming months.
1. Smelter stocking demand: As the fourth quarter approaches, in order to achieve the annual production target, domestic smelters are expected to increase their demand for recycled copper raw materials under the pressure of high copper concentrate prices, and may start stocking ahead of schedule.
2. Southeast Asian transit supply is gradually becoming larger: the chain of American recycled copper turning to Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand and Malaysia for processing and then exporting to China is gradually forming a scale and norm.
3. Rigid demand bottoming out: The tight situation of copper concentrate continues, and the rigid demand for recycled copper raw materials from domestic smelters will provide a bottoming out effect on import volume. In addition, under the influence of policy adjustments in the recycled copper industry, domestic recycled copper raw material production enterprises are expected to be more inclined to purchase raw materials containing 13% value-added tax in the future, further forming a bottom line.
Overall, the import volume of recycled copper raw materials in China in July 2025 has once again shown resilience against the backdrop of the off-season. It is expected that there will be a significant increase in import volume in the short term, but the probability of a cliff like decline is also low, and it is expected to maintain a high volatility. In the long run, the restructuring of the global supply chain for recycled copper is a foregone conclusion. The diversification of China's import sources and the importance of the "Southeast Asian transit" model will become increasingly prominent. In the future, it is necessary to closely monitor whether the import profit window can be opened, overseas policy trends, and the actual recovery of domestic downstream consumption.
However, at present, SMM believes that although the overall import volume of recycled copper raw materials is expected to remain high in the coming months, the growth is mainly driven by the demand of smelters, and the import structure may be differentiated: the import of copper rice required for smelting is expected to continue to increase, while the import volume of bright copper and other products may decrease, and the overall import volume will maintain a dynamic balance. Therefore, the import scale is expected to remain stable. With the gradual end of the seasonal off-season and the recovery of downstream demand, coupled with the expected adjustment of value-added tax policies for recycled copper raw materials, enterprises are expected to increase their willingness to purchase 13% tax point raw materials in the future. It is expected that this will lead to an increase in the import volume of recycled copper raw materials, limited incremental supply of domestic recycled copper raw materials, and the tight supply situation in the spot market is expected to continue. (Attached below is the import volume of recycled copper raw materials by country in July 2025)
